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April 2024: Market ramp-up of electric cars by 2035 in 10 European countries

Dynamic market ramp-up of e-cars

The market ramp-up of e-cars has gained considerable momentum in recent years thanks to technological advances in e-cars and the charging infrastructure as well as ambitious targets in politics and industry. Today, electric cars are suitable for everyday use. Charging electric cars at HPC charging hubs is also possible quickly and comprehensively over long distances.

 

Study "Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030: scenarios for the market ramp-up"

In 2020, the study "Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030", prepared by our colleagues Alexander Windt and Oliver Arnhold and commissioned by the BMVI, was published. Among other things, it reassessed the German government's existing political goal of having 10.5 million electric cars on the road in Germany by 2030. In the confidential cleanroom discussions, the car manufacturers active in Germany were asked about the planned registration figures and technical data for their e-cars. The result: by 2030, the total number of e-cars (battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids) could rise to 14.8 million, including around 9.6 million battery electric vehicles. The German government's goal in 2021 was to transform Germany into the driving lead market for electromobility by 2030. To achieve this, around 15 million e-cars are to be on the roads by then.

 

New edition of the study "Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030: Scenarios for the market ramp-up"

On behalf of the BMDV, the study "Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030: Scenarios for the market ramp-up" was updated by our colleague Alexander Windt as co-author in close cooperation between the Reiner Lemoine Institute and the National Centre for Charging Infrastructure. As part of the update, a.) the manufacturers active in Germany were again asked about their plans and b.) the market ramp-up of electric cars in Germany up to the year 2035 was forecast. According to this, 16.6 million e-cars could be registered in Germany by 2030. A figure of around 26 million e-cars was calculated for the year 2035.

 

Our Localiser customers get the complete package
Localiser customers were previously able to plan charging infrastructure in 10 European countries based on a reliable forecast for the market ramp-up of electric cars by 2030. That has changed: We are extending the time horizon to 2035 so that the longer depreciation periods of charging infrastructure are also covered in our forecasts. To do this, we evaluate various public and non-public sources and always take current market developments into account. The registration figures for the current year have led to a slight correction of the forecast. Germany is therefore assuming just under 26 million e-cars in 2035. However, our message is clear: in the medium and long term, the current events and discussions in Germany will not have a major impact on the market ramp-up of e-cars in Europe.

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