June 2024: Market ramp-up of electric cars by 2035 in 10 European countries
Dynamic market ramp-up of electric cars
The market ramp-up has gained considerable momentum in recent years thanks to technological advances in electric cars and the charging infrastructure, as well as ambitious targets in politics and industry. Electric cars are now suitable for everyday use. Vehicles can also be charged quickly and comprehensively at HPC charging hubs over long distances.
Study “Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030: scenarios for the market ramp-up”
In 2020, the study “Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030”, prepared by our colleagues Alexander Windt and Oliver Arnhold and commissioned by the BMVI, was published. Among other things, it reassessed the German government's existing political goal of having 10.5 million electric cars on the road in Germany by 2030. In the confidential cleanroom discussions, the car manufacturers active in Germany were asked about the planned registration figures and technical data for their models. The result: by 2030, the total number of e-cars (battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids), including around 9.6 million battery electric vehicles, could rise to 14.8 million. The German government's goal in 2021 was to transform Germany into the driving lead market for electromobility by 2030. To achieve this, around 15 million electric cars are to be on the roads by then.
New edition of the study “Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030: Scenarios for the market ramp-up”
On behalf of the BMDV, the study “Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030: Scenarios for the market ramp-up” was updated by our colleague Alexander Windt as co-author in close cooperation between the Reiner Lemoine Institute and the National Centre for Charging Infrastructure.* The update a.) surveyed the manufacturers active in Germany again about their plans and b.) forecast the market ramp-up of e-cars in Germany by 2035. According to this, 16.6 million e-cars could already be registered in Germany by 2030. A figure of around 28 million e-cars was calculated for the year 2035.
All-inclusive for our Localiser customers
Localiser customers were previously able to plan charging infrastructure in 10 European countries based on a reliable forecast for the market ramp-up of electric cars by 2030. That has changed: We are extending the time horizon to 2035 so that the longer depreciation periods of charging infrastructure are also covered in our forecasts. To do this, we evaluate various public and non-public sources and always take current market developments into account. The registration figures for the current year have led to a slight correction of the forecast. In Germany, we therefore expect just under 27 million registered e-cars in 2035. However, our message is clear: in the medium and long term, the current events and discussions in Germany will not have a major impact on the market ramp-up of e-cars in Europe.
*https://nationale-leitstelle.de/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Studie-LIS-2025-2030-Neuauflage-2024.pdf
